Mental Models Library
A growing collection of thinking frameworks that sharpen judgment and decision-making.
Inversion
Think backwards
Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure — then avoid those things. Used by Charlie Munger to make better investment decisions.
First Principles
Break it down
Strip a problem to its fundamental truths and rebuild from there. Reject assumptions. Question everything. The basis of breakthrough innovation.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Let go to move forward
The tendency to continue investing in something because of past costs rather than future value. Kills businesses and careers silently.
Anchoring Bias
The first number wins
The first piece of information we encounter disproportionately shapes our judgment. Whoever sets the anchor controls the negotiation.
Loss Aversion
Losses hurt more
We feel losses roughly twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This asymmetry drives irrational risk avoidance and poor financial decisions.
Second-Order Thinking
What happens next?
First-order thinkers look for simple answers. Second-order thinkers ask: and then what? This separates great strategists from average ones.
Confirmation Bias
Seeing what you want to see
The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms existing beliefs. The silent killer of good judgment.
Map vs Territory
The model is not reality
Every model, plan, and strategy is a simplification. Confusing the map with the territory leads to catastrophic blind spots.
Circle of Competence
Know your boundaries
Understanding what you truly know versus what you think you know. Warren Buffett's most important investing principle.
Hanlon's Razor
Never assume malice
Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence or ignorance. Reduces paranoia, improves relationships.
Availability Heuristic
What comes to mind first
We overweight information that is easily recalled — recent, vivid, emotional. This distorts risk assessment and decision-making.
Reciprocity
Give to get
Humans feel compelled to return favors. One of the most powerful forces in negotiation, sales, and relationship building.